Difficult to handicap what the FDA will do and what happens to new gen. If TPB gets products approved and small players do not then it will be TPB and the big boys and thats it. Maybe new gen will be worth it. Efremov comments on last call that there will be no more vape pmta only modern oral.
Market doesn't trust him. I like how he is making an effort to clearly communicate strategic plans. I also how he worked in different roles in the company to get an idea of challenges facing the business before becoming ceo. Capital allocation is the key. It sounds like he trying to avoid missteps. I hope there are more accretive acquisitions and I believe he is going to stick to his word and stay away from any old pal type investments.
Great writeup. One thing to keep in mind is the share buybacks and the dividend - which makes the company much more attractive.
Since PM bought out Swedish Match, which had planned a spin-off with their cigar business, that the new CEO (who has a lot of experience in M&A), can buy that for a decent price.
I would've actually loved for SWMA to merge w/ TPB -- I think the two businesses are complimentary and given the years of partnership I'd say they have a good relationship, but obviously that can't happen anymore. And 100% they can buy the cigar business. I actually think current regulation is working in favor of TPB as it's going to be incredibly hard working around the new rules for smaller, less experienced companies. PACT and PMTA provide an extra layer of barriers to entry imo.
Why do you think Wrexler left? I couldn't find anything substantial -- is it because of NewGen? I'm pretty sure he's still around, but no longer as CEO.
Yes, that writeup was the one - that first turned me to TPB.
Wrexler is still on the board, so he is not completely gone. Having read through a lot of the filings, Wrexler is not one to shy away from self-criticism. I think he knows, that he made mistakes and that the best opportunity - given the low valuations is through M&A.
However he knows it has to be a big one. So he found the person who's salary was not to high, that still has big expertise.
My theory is, that they will either buy the Swedish Match Group's cigar part or that they will try to buy some private companies like RAW.
If they buy RAW that would be wonderful -- but it likely won't come cheap. I wish they would've posted the IS of acquisitions as well as it's hard to evaluate acquisitions purely based on their balance sheet. Most companies they bought were for a huge premium (hence all the goodwill) or had negative equity.
I'm sure the company will do just fine over the LT. Maybe their NewGen issues will even refocus their attention to their core market. I'll have to take a closer look if that happens.
Difficult to handicap what the FDA will do and what happens to new gen. If TPB gets products approved and small players do not then it will be TPB and the big boys and thats it. Maybe new gen will be worth it. Efremov comments on last call that there will be no more vape pmta only modern oral.
Regulation is definitely uncertain. Thoughts on Efremov?
Market doesn't trust him. I like how he is making an effort to clearly communicate strategic plans. I also how he worked in different roles in the company to get an idea of challenges facing the business before becoming ceo. Capital allocation is the key. It sounds like he trying to avoid missteps. I hope there are more accretive acquisitions and I believe he is going to stick to his word and stay away from any old pal type investments.
Great writeup. One thing to keep in mind is the share buybacks and the dividend - which makes the company much more attractive.
Since PM bought out Swedish Match, which had planned a spin-off with their cigar business, that the new CEO (who has a lot of experience in M&A), can buy that for a decent price.
Good point. There's a really good thread on TPB on VIC, I don't know if you read it. Here's the link:
https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/TURNING_POINT_BRANDS_INC/8800607166#description
I would've actually loved for SWMA to merge w/ TPB -- I think the two businesses are complimentary and given the years of partnership I'd say they have a good relationship, but obviously that can't happen anymore. And 100% they can buy the cigar business. I actually think current regulation is working in favor of TPB as it's going to be incredibly hard working around the new rules for smaller, less experienced companies. PACT and PMTA provide an extra layer of barriers to entry imo.
Why do you think Wrexler left? I couldn't find anything substantial -- is it because of NewGen? I'm pretty sure he's still around, but no longer as CEO.
Yes, that writeup was the one - that first turned me to TPB.
Wrexler is still on the board, so he is not completely gone. Having read through a lot of the filings, Wrexler is not one to shy away from self-criticism. I think he knows, that he made mistakes and that the best opportunity - given the low valuations is through M&A.
However he knows it has to be a big one. So he found the person who's salary was not to high, that still has big expertise.
My theory is, that they will either buy the Swedish Match Group's cigar part or that they will try to buy some private companies like RAW.
If they buy RAW that would be wonderful -- but it likely won't come cheap. I wish they would've posted the IS of acquisitions as well as it's hard to evaluate acquisitions purely based on their balance sheet. Most companies they bought were for a huge premium (hence all the goodwill) or had negative equity.
I'm sure the company will do just fine over the LT. Maybe their NewGen issues will even refocus their attention to their core market. I'll have to take a closer look if that happens.